The Effectiveness of Cash Transfer Program (CTP) in Supporting Disaster Anticipatory Action at the Community Level

Abstract

Indonesia has a high vulnerability to hydrometeorological disasters, which threaten the economic resilience of communities in flood-prone areas. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Cash Transfer Programming (CTP) as an anticipatory action instrument in mitigating the economic impacts of disasters using a mixed-method approach that integrates quantitative data from household surveys and post-distribution monitoring with qualitative data from focus group discussions in four affected villages in Lombok (Dara Kunci, Belanting, Obel-obel, and Taman Ayu). The findings show that the implementation of CTP through a trigger-based delivery system successfully reached 988 households, with the majority of beneficiaries (83% to 96%) allocating assistance toward essential food needs to maintain physical stability. Using the Gap Analysis formula (Gap = |U − A|), the study finds that the intervention demonstrates very high cost-effectiveness, as relatively small amounts of assistance serve as tactical capital to protect productive assets such as livestock, which have significantly higher economic value than the aid provided. Qualitative findings further confirm that the assistance is perceived as a strategic safety net that enables communities to undertake independent evacuation measures. In conclusion, CTP is effective as a catalyst for community self-reliance in breaking the cycle of post-disaster poverty, and strengthening the integration between social protection systems and need-based mitigation strategies is essential to optimize future anticipatory actions.